Altcoin Season Is Upon Us

Here’s What’s On Tap

The USS Pampy McPamps Pamp appears to be leaving port. But the weekend is coming up, and that’s when shenanigans happen.

Today’s HODL My Beer is starting off with a Technically Speaking on possible bullish setups for BAT, OP, and TRB.

On deck: crypto news in three sentences, updated BTC holdings by the BTC ETFs, the daily and weekly RRG, and our cluster dates.

Technically Speaking - February 9, 2024

There are some good-looking charts out there. Can’t hit them all, but let’s look at some we haven’t discussed in a while (or at all).

Basic Attention Token

BAT’s weekly to me just screams Why The Hell Not? The Composite Index is setup perfectly, the Detrended Price Oscillator’s angle suggests a move above the zero line, and BAT’s holding the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) as support.

Ya, I scream about not touching anything inside the Cloud, but there’s always exceptions - this, to me, is one of them. Why? The Cloud gets thinner and thinner which means it gets weaker and weaker. Hell, it’s already weak as hell.

But I only want to get in if the weekly closes above the Kijun-Sen ($0.227) but is still below the Tenkan-Sen ($0.251). Otherwise, I feel like the Cloud will just ping-pong me around. This will be a fun one to watch.

Optimism

Bulls are waiting patiently for an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout, which will be confirmed when the Chikou Span closes above the candlesticks and in open space - roughly the $3.62 value area.

I’m not a huge fan of where the Composite Index is - it’s not at a historical extreme of resistance, but it’s definitely in the ‘top’ range of resistance. The Detrended Price Oscillator looks pretty good, too.

Tellor

Shout out to subscriber Fynnber, who won’t stop bothering me about analyzing this moldy ham and cheese sandwich of crypto. And I say it’s a moldy ham and cheese sandwich because the daily and monthly charts are horrid.

The weekly is still horrid, but if you’re someone who wants to YOLO and Let’s Gooooooooo on crypto, this would be the chart to do it. Why? Because of the blob of grey on the chart below:

TRBs have gaps wider than the gap between an anorexic’s thighs and pelvis. What gaps, you ask? The gaps between the bodies of the weekly candlesticks and the Tenkan-Sen.

The candlestick body and the Tenkan-Sen have an unhealthy co-dependent relationship. They will fight occasionally, with one of them running off and screaming OMG U R SUCH A BIZNATCH I NEVER WANT TO SEE YOU AGAIN, but the farther away they get from each other, the more they realize they can’t be away from one another.

Gaps often correct within five to seven candles, so Trellor is primed for some violent moves to return to equilibrium. Oh, and the next weekly candlestick puts TRB close to the next Kumo Twist, the week of March 4.

Crypto News In 3 Sentences

Peter Schiff Hasn’t Said Anything

It's not really news, but something I thought about: Bitcoin will be 20 years old in five years. That means the Bitcoin hater Peter Schiff will have been wrong about Bitcoin for over half of his career and missed the greatest wealth-generating opportunity of his life. ⚖️

I Guess People Like Things That Break Often

On-chain analytics firm Santiment posted on X: “Solana is one of the few altcoins outperforming Bitcoin this week, surging back above $102. In the past 36 hours, SOL/BTC is +4.5%.” Oh well. 🤷‍♂️

Conman And Crybaby Internet Fight

Piers Morgan and Jordan Belfort spar over Bitcoin's legitimacy, with Morgan dismissing it as hype and Belfort highlighting its growing acceptance among institutional investors. Belfort, once a skeptic, now sees Bitcoin as a viable alternative to traditional markets, which he criticizes as unfairly skewed against individual investors. 💼

Another Gov Agency Thinks It Can Just Do Whatever

Blockchain industry groups accuse the US Energy Department's data collection from crypto miners as a politically motivated attack on innovation. They argue that the move by the EIA unfairly targets Bitcoin mining, hindering US leadership in cryptocurrency. ⚡

Well, That’s Interesting

Net gains all around for these ETFS, except for Fidelity which sold off a big chunk, but has started to buy it again.

RRG Ya You Know Me

If you’re unfamiliar with how to read/interpret the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), that’s cool. Not many people are familiar with it. But to avoid a wall of text, refer to this prior HODL My Beer, which has a good explanation.

10-Day Daily RRG

How I interpret the daily

ARB and LDO have the most risk, but given the angle of their trajectory, maybe a good long play for one or both if the charts look ok? COTI’s off in la-la-land but might have a lot of juice left. SYN appears the most interesting, given how far it is from the center and how deep the momentum loss has been.

13-Week Weekly RRG

How I interpret the weekly

Zcash (ZEC), XRP, and LTC look like the best risk for the reward on this weekly RRG, specifically Zcash. However, Zcash is also the riskiest, and Litecoin may see the more ‘immediate’ bullish change out of the bunch.

If the positive momentum in crypto continues, assets like RUNE, LINK, TEER, and STEP will likely see some fast swings, too.

Cluster Dates

Derived from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory data and analyzed through the lens of Gann Analysis, the ensuing date intervals warrant close observation, particularly when a market or specific instrument exhibits strong directional momentum. In such instances, there's a substantial likelihood of witnessing a sharp reversal in trend around these pivotal dates.

In other words: put these in your calendar in ALL CAPS and write something like PAY THE F*CK ATTENTION KK THNX.

May 17-28

July 15

August 14 -22

September 7-17

November 17-19