Altcoin Valentine Coming Early: Prepping For A Pumping

Here’s What’s On Tap

Starting with a Technically Speaking on possible bullish setups for ICP, IOTA, AVAX, and a not-so-bullish setup for BNB - a.k.a. Judas Coin.

On deck: crypto news in three sentences, a look at the BTC futures COT report, and the list of cluster dates.

Technically Speaking - February 7, 2024

There’s some pamp slow creepin’ into these charts. I wanted to get IOTA and ICP in yesterday but didn’t get a chance. Thankfully, it looks like they’re still positioned so I don’t miss out on any pamp.

AVAX

AVAX’s daily chart for Ichimoku traders and analysts is so hawt that it deserves to have some poorly written dialogue.

Well, hello there, pretty lady. My name’s HODL, what’s yours? AVAX?

Well, it’s nice to meet you, AVAX. Did your parents name you after a plague or disease? heh heh heh.

Oh, well, thank you. My sense of humor just a gift from God, I can’t take any credit.

But, baby, listen, I gotta tell ya, my Chikou Span and candlestick are ready to pop up out of this resistance so we can break out together if you know what I mean.

However, in this scenario, Ichimoku bulls are waiting for an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout. And it’s confirmed on a daily close above the Cloud, at or above $38.75.

ICP

Man, this is one sexy-looking daily chart. Ichimoku traders and analysts are frothing at the mouth like those raging nerds who open up alpha edition Magic: The Gathering booster packs before finding a Black Lotus.

The only thing missing for a confirmed Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout pattern is the Chikou Span closing above the candlesticks and in open space - which will occur at $13.00.

The first probable resistance zone bulls would see is between the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $19.70 and the 50% Fibonacci extension at $19.00.

IOTA

I’m not going to show the monthly and weekly charts, but just know that the combination of those two Ichimoku charts and the daily explain a lot of why IOTA can’t seem to pick its ass up and start moving.

But there are some yucky nasty resistance levels ahead, chief of which is the $0.28 - it’s chock-full of converging Fibonacci resistance and extension levels. Same goes for $0.322. But above that, things look fairly open until the 61.8% Fib retracement and 100% Fib extension, both at $0.44.

Oh, and there’s an inverse head and shoulders pattern for people who care about that kind of thing.

But IOTA’s a tricky one. Aggressive Ichimoku bulls are likely waiting for an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout - a daily close at or above $0.27. Conservative bulls are likely waiting till after the weekend to see if IOTA can avoid re-entering the Cloud and stay above the resistance cluster at $0.28.

BNB

Personally, I think Binance is a big huge pile of shit for delisting one of the most important cryptocurrencies that exist: Monero (XMR). Some folks reached out and wanted me to peek at Judas Coin here because of an inverse head and shoulder pattern.

From an Ichimoku perspective, it looks great! The only thing bulls are waiting for is a confirmed close above the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span B) at $309. But a few things make me want to avoid this chart.

Firstly, the Composite Index is coming down from a historical resistance zone and crossed below its fast average. Second, the slope of the Detrended Price oscillator is pointing down.

Third and most important is the six-week-long series of gaps between candlestick bodies and the Tenkan-Sen. If anything, BNB is more likely to pull back than blast off. If you’re looking for a long setup, there’s less risk out there folks.

Crypto News In 3 Sentences

Much Wow, Fake-toshi Sad

Craig Wright, embroiled in a legal battle with COPA, tearfully claims he was framed with forged documents in his quest to prove he is Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Even Wright’s experts questioned the authenticity of some documents. The lawsuit could prevent Wright from further suing Bitcoin developers in London, where he's favored for its plaintiff-friendly legal standards. ⚖️

Roblox Rockets

Roblox's shares skyrocketed over 12% following its Q4 earnings report, which exceeded expectations, signaling strong user engagement and monetization. The gaming company's ability to effectively monetize its platform and significantly increase daily active users has propelled its market capitalization to new heights. 🎮

CME Trading Volume Pamps

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) witnessed a 35% spike in trading volume, reaching $94.9 billion in January, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The increase in Bitcoin futures trading volume to $73 billion highlights the shift towards more regulated investment avenues for institutional players and the broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies. 📈

SBF and Mashinsky Have The Same Legal Team?

The U.S. government calls for a hearing to address potential legal conflicts in the cases of Sam Bankman-Fried and Alex Mashinsky, citing concerns over shared representation. Prosecutors suggest a Curcio hearing to explore these conflicts stemming from intertwined business dealings between Celsius and Alameda Research. ⚖️

That’s Interesting

Because I included a story about the CME’s (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) spike in volume, so I thought I‘d share a short intro to the COT report.

In a nutshell, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report is the weekly transparency data dump of the futures market, showcasing the long and short positions between speculative players and the big boys in commercial hedging – a snapshot of who's betting on what in the commodities playground.

It comes out on Friday around roughly 1530 EST and shows how people were positioned on Tuesday.

It looks like this:

Which is God-awful, because it’s from a sort-of-government-but-not-really-but-it-still-is entity. Thankfully, there are places like tradingster that make it look like something a human being can look at:

At first glance, you’re probably overwhelmed, so I’ll explain how I use the COT report (which is almost never for crypto but all the time in FX and equity futures).

There are two main groups to pay attention to: the Non-Commercials, which are your big boy hedge funds and professional trade desks, and then the Non-desirables, I mean non-reportables. Fancy speak for dumb money.

Right now, dumb money (that’s you and me) is nearly 69% long vs. short on Bitcoin while the pros are 52.5% short vs. long. For me, the only time I find this useful is when the pros are waaaaaaay heavily positioned in one direction for a long time; check out any FX (forex) future, and you’ll see what I mean.

Useful? Not really, but the CME futures contract for Bitcoin gets tossed around a lot, and if you’ve ever wondered about some of the lingo, well, there it is.

Cluster Dates

Derived from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory data and analyzed through the lens of Gann Analysis, the ensuing date intervals warrant close observation, particularly when a market or specific instrument exhibits strong directional momentum. In such instances, there's a substantial likelihood of witnessing a sharp reversal in trend around these pivotal dates.

In other words: put these in your calendar in ALL CAPS and write something like PAY THE F*CK ATTENTION KK THNX.

May 17-28

July 15

August 14 -22

September 7-17

November 17-19