Dear Cupid: Don't Eff Up V-Day

Here’s What’s On Tap

Today is all aboot the charts. No news, just charts.

We’re starting with a Technically Speaking over SHIB, BTC, DOT, and ETH.

And finally, we’re looking at how some prior analysis and trade setups have panned out over the past couple of weeks on the daily charts.

Technically Speaking - February 8, 2024

 Shiba Inu

I want to preface this analysis with how dirty I feel even writing about this shitcoin of shitcoins. But some of you degenerates reached out, and, well, sometimes, we have to sacrifice for subscriber numbers to go up the ones we love.

With the exception of this chart being SHIB’s chart, there are some cool Gann and Ichimoku elements here to watch play out. From a price action perspective, nothing here looks good. In fact, it would be best to take this Shiba to the shed and use a $0.30 bullet instead of to the veterinarian whose profession now believes they should be paid like brain surgeons.

But from a time cycle perspective, this chart is cool. Gann’s 7-week (49 to 52 days) ‘Death Zone’ is a powerful reversal cycle that often terminates short-term trends. In addition to that, today is the day of the Kumo Twist on SHIB’s daily chart.

For Gann analysts, time is the most important factor and for them, the risk vs. reward here is exactly the kind of thing they’re looking for. But because Gann analysts are classy sons of bitches, and this is Shiba PooPoo, they’re probably not even looking at it.

Long story short, the combination of the Kumo Twist and Gann’s ‘Death Zone’ indicates a high probability of a return to bullish momentum over the next two to four days.

Bitcoin

Sweet baby Jesus in a manager with the cattle a lowing we’re watching something epic occur. Bitcoin is making an attempt to break out of the daily cloud to confirm an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout.

Any daily close at or above $45,100 will confirm the first Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout on the daily chart since October 16, 2023. And while the monthly chart is shown here, if February’s candlestick were to close today, it would be only the third time in Bitcoin’s history that an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout occurred.

Oh, and depending on the sources, a daily close above $45,250 will liquidate roughly $5.2 billion of shorts across the decentralized derivatives markets in crypto. #momentofsilencefortheshorts

Polkadot

DOT’s weekly chart is pretty damn ossum. This one is easy for Ichimoku bulls: any weekly close above Senkou Span B ($6.80), but under the Tenkan-Sen ($7.80), it is a go for them. And the oscillators on the weekly really support bulls here.

That hidden bullish divergence between price and the Composite Index is just… technical analysis nerds might get emotional about its beauty. Couple that with the Detrended Price Oscillator positioned for crossing above the zero line, and you’ve got a double scoop of awesome sauce right there.

Any confirmed bullish run might go until the $12.00 - $12.50 value areas where the 88.6% Fib retracement and 61.8% Fib extension exist.

Ethereum

Now, don’t hate me for this one, but not everything is always cocaine, rocket ships to Mars and Lambos. I want to point out the ‘bad’ scenario using Ethereum.

In the image above, you’ll notice the monthly chart on the left and the daily chart on the right. For the last three months, Ethereum has struggled to move and stay above the bottom of the monthly Cloud (Senkou Span B) - not exactly a reason for bullish confidence, given how ‘awesome’ the last few months have been.

On the daily chart, ETH is showing some early warning signs of buying exhaustion: failure to break above the Cloud, the Composite Index at a historically oversold level, and the Detrended Price Oscillator starting to turn down after just recently testing the zero line as support.

If prices do nose dive, there is a strong support zone between the weekly Kijun-Sen at $2,119 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,151.

A Look Back - February 8, 2024

You know, I meant to do this the other day, but when you’ve got a wife, an almost two-year-old, a three-year-old who throat-punches you because you thought it was a good idea to sign him up for karate lessons, and you’ve can’t remember if you took your ADHD medication, things are bound to get messed up.

Btw. Two-year-olds are terrible. But three-year-olds are assholes.

Picking up where we left off in the February 6 HODL My Beer: going through past analysis and trade ideas to see how things have panned out - good or bad.

January 26, 2024 HODL My Beer (Link)

Cardano

Synopsis: Aggressive bulls looking at entering around $0.488, conservative bulls at $0.511.

Result: ADA’s been all over the place but hit both entry zones, pulled back a little, and is sitting just a hair above Senkou Span B and inside the daily Cloud in the $0.53 value area.

NEAR Protocol

Synopsis: Bulls looking for a daily close above $3.01

Result: NEAR hit the entry zone, moved as high as $3.21 before pulling back and now it’s hovering in the $2.92 zone.

Bitcoin

Synopsis: A daily close above $43,800 over the next few days would confirm an Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout setup.

Result: If you’ve read today’s Technically Speaking, then you know what’s going on.

January 29, 2024 HODL My Beer (LINK)

Chainlink

Synopsis: Bulls looking for an entry at $14.41.

Result: Entry hit, and it moved as high as $19.76, just why of where we looked at it in the February 2 HODL My Beer.

We’ll continue this review tomorrow.

Cluster Dates

Derived from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory data and analyzed through the lens of Gann Analysis, the ensuing date intervals warrant close observation, particularly when a market or specific instrument exhibits strong directional momentum. In such instances, there's a substantial likelihood of witnessing a sharp reversal in trend around these pivotal dates.

In other words: put these in your calendar in ALL CAPS and write something like PAY THE F*CK ATTENTION KK THNX.

May 17-28

July 15

August 14 -22

September 7-17

November 17-19