Lame-uary Ends And Flat-uary Begins

Technically Speaking over ETH, BAT, SOL, and DOGE and a look at February's historical performance for BTC

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Crypto News In 3 Sentences

SEC Plays The Little Bitch Card

Facing court sanctions, the SEC has dropped charges against DEBT Box, at least for now. After presenting misleading evidence, the SEC seeks dismissal without prejudice, leaving the door open for future charges and quietly hoping Mommy and Daddy don’t spank them too hard. ⚖️

Ripple Founder Got Haxored

On-chain detective ZachXBT uncovered unusual outflows of $112 million in XRP from Ripple-linked addresses. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen confirmed his personal accounts were hacked, not Ripple Labs. But he’s probably not worried because XRP, like manna from heaven, can appear as easily as it disappears. 🚨

Crypto Mom Not Having It

SEC Commissioner Hester ‘Crypto Mom’ Peirce criticizes the SEC's gag rule for defendants who settle. The rule, preventing criticism of allegations post-settlement, lacks legal support, says Peirce. In other words, the SEC is made up of people picked last in 3rd-grade dodgeball and are insecure and don’t like it if you shit-talk them after kicking their ass. 🗣️

Dorsey’s Block Kills Jobs With Efficiency And Fairness

Block Inc. has laid off over a thousand employees, nearly 10% of its workforce. The cuts affect Cash App, Foundational, and Square divisions. Jack Dorsey's memo emphasizes efficiency and fairness in the process because everyone loves to hear how fair their firing is from the billionaire in his bat cave. 💼

SEC May Greenlight Spot Ethereum ETFs in May

Standard Chartered Bank predicts the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs by May 23, mirroring its Bitcoin ETF strategy. Geoffrey Kendrick expects Ethereum's price to soar, with Grayscale's ETH trust potentially turning into an ETF. 📈

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Well, That’s Interesting

February is upon us. How has Bitcoin historically faired in February? Let’s find out.

Click to enlarge.

Despite closing in the green ten out of the past 13 years, February only ranks 5th for its average monthly performance.

As for how it ranks according to its average gains during up years, it is in the back at 8th place. But for average losses, February has the 2nd lowest average loss.

What does this mean? Who knows. 13 years of data isn’t a lot of data, but according to what we have, February has a high probability of closing in the green, but don’t expect a parade.

And if it closes in the red, it’s not an apocalypse. Famous last words.

Technically Speaking - January 31, 2024

As we approach the end of January and the beginning of February, let’s look at some cryptocurrencies at (or near) some critical price levels.

Ethereum

ETHUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.

Unless something drastic happens, Ethereum will close in the green for the sixth month in a row but unable to close above Senkou Span B and inside the Cloud. The two important price levels to monitor on the monthly are Senkou Span B ($2,475) as resistance and Tenkan-Sen ($2,118) as support.

Basic Attention Token

BATUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.

The January candlestick for BAT looks ugly as hell for bulls: a bearish engulfing candlestick. However, the monthly volume might be a good indicator that the candlestick pattern, while bearish, may not be all doom and gloom and could very well be a fakeout.

The critical levels are the Tenkan-Sen and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement in the $0.228 value areas. A close above those two levels bulls a nice and clear run higher on the monthly chart.

Dogecoin

DOGEUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.

Like BAT’s monthly chart, Dogecoin struggles on the final day of January to close above the Tenkan-Sen at $0.081. Up ahead is a Kumo Twist, so given the flat nature of DOGE’s trading, March and April may be explosive months for the original shitcoin.

Solana

SOLUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge.

There will be a fairly nasty gap between the body (almost nonexistent) of the January candlestick and the Tenkan-Sen. Within the Ichimoku system, price and the Tenkan-Sen are like an unhealthy, codependent couple. Oh, they may get nasty towards one another and leave, but it’s not long before they come back to each other. Does it happen right away? Rarely.

Most often, the gaps reconcile within three to five periods - but if you look back at the monthly candles from January 2022 to February 2023, you’ll notice that’s not always the case. The 2022 to 2023 move is certainly one of those rare moments.

And in the case of the 2022 to 2023 gaps, price didn’t return to the Tenkan-Sen, the Tenkan-Sen returned to price - that in itself is a rarer event. It’s difficult to gauge how Solana might react, but further upside movement will likely be limited.

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